Final Oscar Nomination Predictions: ‘Nomadland’ and Netflix Can Rule the Wild and Crazy Year

If you’re reading this the day after our issue hits newsstands, the Oscar voting period is now closed. So where does it all stand?

The Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards gave their top prize to Chloé Zhao’s “Nomadland,” which solidified its front-runner status. Jason Woliner’s “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” received boosts from winning the Globes’ best picture comedy prize and nabbing a surprise Producers Guild of America nomination. Still, it’ll be tricky to see the film picking up the broad support needed to land a nom in the Academy’s top category. It does, however, help star Maria Bakalova, who has become a darling of this year’s quarantine campaign trail.

Netflix walks in with multiple options, but it’s unclear how many nods it will be able to actually secure. Aaron Sorkin’s “The Trial of the Chicago 7” is the best bet to challenge “Nomadland” and could lead the day’s tally. George C. Wolfe’s “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” and David Fincher’s “Mank” have landed all the required elements of a best picture nominee. Still, it hasn’t been intensely apparent whether they have a passionate following among AMPAS voters. In the case of “Mank,” when the PGA Awards snubbed Paul Greengrass’ “News of the World,” it made it evident that the two films may be drinking from the same awards well, so to speak. An old-fashioned Western and an old-Hollywood movie definitely speak to the same Academy voter demographic. However, the international crowd may tilt the scale in other ways.

One direction could be to European-leaning narratives such as Florian Zeller’s “The Father.” Many voters live in France and Spain, and the original stage version of Zeller’s show was a big hit abroad and could be one of the shockers of nomination morning. “The Father” could follow a trajectory similar to that of 2013’s “Philomena,” which also missed a PGA nom.

The outcomes for the mixture of Black narratives will be interesting to watch unfold. Shaka King’s “Judas and the Black Messiah” has had a surge, and with star Daniel Kaluuya seemingly marching toward an Oscar podium (or a virtual unmuted moment?), that could bring in unexpected nominations for Dominique Fishback in best supporting actress and perhaps an artisan nod or two.

Regina King’s “One Night in Miami” has been on this train since its debut at Venice. The director’s branch is still very much a “boys club” that likes to wait to award newcomers to the Oscar race, yet we’ve never had this many first-timers vying for spots. Among them: Emerald Fennell’s “Promising Young Woman,” which could be a serious contender for not just Carey Mulligan in best actress but also perhaps original screenplay. The question really is whether we will have multiple women in the field of best director.

There’s also the question of how many best picture nominees will be chosen. Nine has been the most frequent number, but it’s possible that voters haven’t watched as many movies at home in this unusual year. If so, there may be anywhere from six to eight contenders in the final year of the sliding scale before the Academy moves back to a guaranteed 10 nominees.

In the acting races, there are many areas of fluidity, particularly best supporting actress, which is without a front-runner at the moment. Only Olivia Colman (“The Father”) seems guaranteed a nomination.

In supporting actor, Kaluuya, along with Sacha Baron Cohen (“The Trial of the Chicago 7”) and Leslie Odom Jr. (“One Night in Miami”), look ready for their AMPAS night. But we could see one or two “Marina de Tavira”-type nominations, which is to say, someone who sneaks in without any critics’ or precursor nods. I’m eyeing David Strathairn (“Nomadland”) to take that mantle.

In the leading categories, best actress has a “consensus five” among awards enthusiasts, though Yeri Han (“Minari”), Sophia Loren (“The Life Ahead”) and Zendaya (“Malcolm & Marie”) could be lurking.

In best actor, Delroy Lindo (“Da 5 Bloods”) has been a critics’ favorite but missed out on Globe and SAG critical love. Perhaps the theater wing of the acting branch can bring the long-working thespian to his first nomination. At whose expense, though? Gary Oldman (“Mank”) or Steven Yeun (“Minari”) could be the casualties. Meanwhile, Mads Mikkelsen (“Another Round”) and Tahar Rahim (“The Mauritanian”) has risen substantially in the final days of voting.

It’s all going down on March 15, when the nominations are announced. My final predictions are below, with nine films in best picture. The numerical rankings are on the individual Academy Award category pages.

Best Picture

“The Father” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Philippe Carcassonne, Jean-Louis Livi, David Parfitt
“Judas and the Black Messiah” (Warner Bros.)
Charles D. King, Ryan Coogler, Shaka King
“Mank” (Netflix)
Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth, Douglas Urbanski
“Minari” (A24)
Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Christina Oh
“Nomadland” (Searchlight Pictures)
Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey, Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Chloé Zhao
“One Night in Miami” (Amazon Studios)
Jess Wu Calder, Keith Calder, Jody Klein
“Promising Young Woman” (Focus Features)
Ben Browning, Emerald Fennell, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley, Josey McNamara, Ashley Fox
“Sound of Metal” (Amazon Studios)
Bert Hamelinck, Sacha Ben Harroche, Bill Benz, Kathy Benz
“The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix)
Stuart M. Besser, Matt Jackson, Marc Platt, Tyler Thompson

Alternate: “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (Netflix)

Best Director

Lee Isaac Chung, “Minari” (A24)
Emerald Fennell, “Promising Young Woman” (Focus Features)
Aaron Sorkin, “The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix)
Florian Zeller, “The Father” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Chloé Zhao, “Nomadland” (Searchlight Pictures)

Alternate: Regina King, “One Night in Miami” (Amazon Studios)

Best Actor

Riz Ahmed, “Sound of Metal” (Amazon Studios)
Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (Netflix)
Anthony Hopkins, “The Father” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Tahar Rahim, “The Mauritanian” (STXfilms)
Steven Yeun, “Minari” (A24)

Alternate: Mads Mikkelsen, “Another Round” (Samuel Goldwyn Films)

Best Actress

Viola Davis, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (Netflix)
Andra Day, “The United States vs. Billie Holiday” (Hulu)
Vanessa Kirby, “Pieces of a Woman” (Netflix)
Frances McDormand, “Nomadland” (Searchlight Pictures)
Carey Mulligan, “Promising Young Woman” (Focus Features)

Alternate: Sophia Loren, “The Life Ahead” (Netflix)

Best Supporting Actor

Sacha Baron Cohen, “The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix)
Daniel Kaluuya, “Judas and the Black Messiah” (Warner Bros)
Leslie Odom Jr., “One Night in Miami” (Amazon Studios)
Paul Raci, “Sound of Metal” (Amazon Studios)
David Strathairn, “Nomadland” (Searchlight Pictures)

Alternate: Chadwick Boseman, “Da 5 Bloods” (Netflix)

Best Supporting Actress

Maria Bakalova, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” (Amazon Studios)
Olivia Colman, “The Father” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Dominique Fishback, “Judas and the Black Messiah” (Warner Bros)
Amanda Seyfried, “Mank” (Netflix)
Yuh-Jung Youn, “Minari” (A24)

Alternate: Jodie Foster, “The Mauritanian” (STXfilms)

Best Original Screenplay

“Judas and the Black Messiah” (Warner Bros) – Will Berson, Shaka King, Keith Lucas, Kenneth Lucas
“Minari” (A24) – Lee Isaac Chung
“Promising Young Woman” (Focus Features) – Emerald Fennell
“Sound of Metal” (Amazon Studios) – Darius Marder, Abraham Marder, Derek Cianfrance
“The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix) – Aaron Sorkin

Alternate: “Mank” (Netflix) – Jack Fincher

Best Adapted Screenplay

“The Father” (Sony Pictures Classics) – Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller
“The Mauritanian” (STXfilms) – M.B. Traven, Rory Haines, Sohrab Noshirvani
“Nomadland” (Searchlight Pictures) – Chloé Zhao
“One Night in Miami” (Amazon Studios) – Kemp Powers
“The White Tiger” (Netflix) – Ramin Bahrani

Alternate: “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (Netflix) – Ruben Santiago-Hudson

Best Animated Feature

“The Croods: A New Age” (DreamWorks Animation)
“Onward” (Pixar)
“A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon” (Netflix)
“Soul” (Pixar)
“Wolfwalkers” (Apple TV Plus/GKIDS)

Alternate: “Over the Moon” (Netflix)

Best Production Design

“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (Netflix) –
“Mank” (Netflix) –
“News of the World” (Universal Pictures) –
“Tenet” (Warner Bros) –
“The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix) –

Alternate: “Mulan” (Walt Disney Pictures) – Grant Major, Anne Kuljian

Best Cinematography

“Judas and the Black Messiah” (Warner Bros) – Sean Bobbitt
“Mank” (Netflix) – Erik Messerschmidt
“News of the World” (Universal Pictures) – Dariusz Wolski
“Nomadland” (Searchlight Pictures) – Joshua James Richards
“The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix) – Phedon Papamichael

Alternate: “Cherry” (Apple TV Plus) – Newton Thomas Sigel

Best Costume Design

“Emma” (Focus Features) – Alexandra Byrne
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (Netflix) – Ann Roth
“Mank” (Netflix) – Trish Summerville
“Mulan” (Walt Disney Pictures) – Bina Daigeler
“Promising Young Woman” (Focus Features) – Nancy Steiner

Alternate: “News of the World” (Universal Pictures) – Mark Bridges

Best Film Editing

“The Father” (Searchlight Pictures) – Yorgos Lamprinos
“Minari” (A24) – Harry Yoon
“Nomadland” (Searchlight Pictures) – Chloé Zhao
“Sound of Metal” (Amazon Studios) – Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
“The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix) – Alan Baumgarten

Alternate: “Mank” (Netflix) – Kirk Baxter

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

“Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn)” (Warner Bros) – Deborah Lamia Denaver, Sabrina Wilson, Adruitha Lee
“The Glorias” (Roadside Attractions and LD Entertainment) –
“Hillbilly Elegy” (Netflix) – Eryn Krueger Mekash, Patricia Dehaney, Matthew Mungle
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (Netflix) – Matiki Anoff (makeup department head), Mia Neal (hair department head), Larry M. Cherry (hair department head)
“Pinocchio” (Roadside Attractions) – Mark Coulier, Dalia Colli, Francesco Pegoretti

Alternate: “One Night in Miami” (Amazon Studios) – Scott Wheeler, Sabrina Cruz Castro, Nakoya Yancey

Best Sound

“Greyhound” (Apple TV Plus) – Odin Benitez, Jason King, Christian P. Minkler, Michael Minkler, Jeff Sawyer
“Mank” (Netflix) – Ren Klyce, Jeremy Molod, David Parker, Nathan Nance, Drew Kunin
“News of the World” (Universal Pictures) – John Pritchett, Mike Prestwood Smith, William Miller, Oliver Tarney, Michael Fentum
“Nomadland” (Searchlight Pictures) – Sergio Diaz, Zach Seivers, M. Wolf Snyder
“Sound of Metal” (Amazon Studios) – Phillip Bladh, Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés, Carolina Santana

Alternate: “The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix) – Renee Tondelli, Dan Kenyon, Julian Slater, Michael Babcock, Thomas Varga

Best Visual Effects

“Mank” (Netflix) – Wei Zheng, Simon Carr, Pablo Helman, James Pastorius
“The Midnight Sky” (Netflix) – Matt Kasmir, Chris Lawrence, Dave Watkins, Max Solomon
“Mulan” (Walt Disney Pictures) – Sean Faden, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury, Steve Ingram
“Tenet” (Warner Bros) – Andrew Jackson, Andrew Lockley, Scott R. Fisher, Mike Chambers
“Welcome to Chechnya” (HBO) – Ryan Laney, Maxwell Anderson, Johnny Han, Piers Dennis

Alternate: “The One and Only Ivan” (Disney Plus) – Nick Davis, Greg Fisher, Ben Jones, Santiago Colomo Martinez

Best Original Score

“Blizzard of Souls” (Film Movement) – Lolita Ritmanis
“The Midnight Sky” (Netflix) – Alexandre Desplat
“Minari” (A24) – Emile Mosseri
“News of the World” (Universal Pictures) – James Newton Howard
“Soul” (Pixar) – Jon Batiste, Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross

Alternate: “Mank” (Netflix) – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross

Best Original Song

“All In: The Fight for Democracy” (Amazon Studios) – “Turntables” – Janelle Monáe, Nathaniel Irvin III, George “George 2.0.” A. Peters II
“Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga” (Netflix) – “Húsavík” – Written by Savan Kotecha, Rickard Goransson, fat max Gsus
“The Life Ahead” (Netflix) – “Io Si (Seen)” – Written by Diane Warren, Laura Pausini, Niccolò Agliardi)
“Judas and the Black Messiah” (Warner Bros) – “Fight for You” – Written by H.E.R., Dernst Emile II, Tiara Thomas
“One Night in Miami” (Amazon Studios) – “Speak Now” – Written by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth

Alternate: “The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix) – “Hear My Voice (Written by Daniel Pemberton and Celeste)

Best Documentary Feature

“Collective” (Magnolia Pictures) – Alexander Nanau, Bernard Michaux, Hanka Kastelicová, Bianca Oana
“The Mole Agent” (Gravitas Ventures) – Marcela Santibañez, Maite Alberdi
“Time” (Amazon Studios) – Lauren Domino, Kellen Quinn, Garrett Bradley
“The Truffle Hunters” (Sony Pictures Classics) – Michael Dweck, Gregory Kershaw
“Welcome to Chechnya” (HBO) – David France, Alice Henty, Askold Kurov, Joy A. Tomchin

Alternate: “MLK/FBI” (IFC Films) – Benjamin Hedin, Sam Pollard

Best International Feature

“Another Round” (Denmark)
“The Man Who Sold His Skin” (Tunisia)
“Night of the Kings” (Ivory Coast)
“Quo Vadis, Aida?” (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
“Two of Us” (France)

Alternate: “La Llorona” (Guatemala)

Best Animated Short

“If Anything Happens I Love You” (Netflix) – Michael Govier, Will McCormack
“Kapaemahu” (The Animation Showcase) – Dean Hamer, Joe Wilson, Hinaleimoana Wong-Kalu
“Opera” (Beasts and Natives Alike) – Erick Oh
“Out” (Disney Plus) – Steven Clay Hunter
“The Snail and the Whale” (Magic Light Pictures) – Max Lang, Daniel Snaddon

Alternate: “Burrow” (Disney Plus) – Madeline Sharafian

Best Documentary Short

“Abortion Helpline, This Is Lisa” (Topic) – Barbara Attie, Mike Attie, Janet Goldwater
“A Concerto Is a Conversation” (Breakwater Studios) – Kris Bowers, Ben Proudfoot
“Colette” (Time Travel Unlimited) – Anthony Giacchino
“Do Not Split” (Field of Vision) – Anders Hammers
“A Love Song for Latasha” (Netflix) – Sophia Nahli Allison

Alternate: “Call Center Blues” (Topic) – Geeta Gandbhir

Best Live Action Short

“Feeling Through” (Doug Roland Films) – Doug Roland
“The Human Voice” (Sony Pictures Classics) – Pedro Almodóvar
“The Letter Room” (Salaud Morisset, Topic) – Elvira Lind
“Two Distant Strangers” (Dirty Robber, NowThis) – Travon Free, Martin Desmond Roe
“White Eye” (EROIN CORP) – Tomer Shushan

Alternate: “The Kicksled Choir” (Fjordic Film) – Torfinn Iverson