A new biography of Bob Hawke has delivered a potent reminder of a time when Australia’s political parties produced leaders and prime ministers of depth and substance.
Ever wondered why Hawke’s contemporaries Paul Keating and John Howard, many years after leading their governments to electoral defeat, command attention when they offer a view about today’s politics? Because, like Hawke, they’re heavyweights – in office and out.
Former PM John Howard speaking at a Liberal Party rally.Credit:Brook Mitchell
That’s a contrast with some of the prime ministers who have followed them.
I try not to get too nostalgic about the near-quarter century when Hawke, Keating and Howard headed Australian governments. The same goes for the days of Malcolm Fraser, which is when I started writing about federal politics. After all, we all share an obligation to celebrate the now, to try to make these days the best days. But when I survey the leaders I’ve reported on, it’s hard to get enthusiastic about the coming election.
With the way he presented himself in his early months as Prime Minister all the way to his 2019 election win – the stunts and assurances that little would ever change on his watch – Scott Morrison handicapped himself severely in the heavyweight stakes.
He hasn’t done much to help himself since. Indeed, he’s the least substantial of all the PMs in my time. He definitely has the will to power that all successful leaders must have. As his opponents and many fellow Liberals will attest, he has a ruthlessness, an innate desire to prevail. But to what end?
Beyond Liberal tribalism, the accrual and assertion of power, and an enjoyment of being a public figure, it’s difficult to discern what set of policy goals drives him. Morrison has served as prime minister longer than Malcolm Turnbull, Tony Abbott, Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd. If he wins another term, he won’t change.
Although it’s likely that Morrison will be viewed by history as a prime minister more in the mould of the unremarkable Joseph Lyons than the giant-killer Bob Menzies, his influence on the way politics is conducted in his own time is profound. A mere glance at Labor under Anthony Albanese shows the opposition playing under rules Morrison set in 2019 when he portrayed Bill Shorten’s proposed reforms as threats to the nation.
Albanese gets riled when he’s accused of running a small target strategy, pointing to a raft of policy announcements. Fair enough, there are quite a few but what we’ve seen so far could hardly be called risky or even ambitious. The government, predictably, warns that Albanese, who hails from the NSW Left, will reveal his true colours as a radical should Labor win office.
If so, he’s been lying doggo for a long time. In his 26 years as an MP, he’s never been a fire-breathing leftie. Actually, he has a bit in common with Morrison. Both seem driven by a desire for personal vindication through victory. Both eschew the need for a truly transformative approach to government. Morrison offers cost of living relief. Albanese offers that, plus some running repairs, most importantly on wages and aged care.
The battle is yet to be joined formally but there’s every prospect the contest will come down to several weeks of both men pointing at each other, declaring “vote for me because I’m not him”. The leader who can convince more voters that he is the less bad option will come out on top.
The published opinion polls tell the same story to differing degrees. Voters have a desultory attitude to the government and the opposition and the leaders. They lean towards the ALP but not decisively. Labor’s best hope for victory? That a majority of voters will conclude that Morrison is not a substantial enough figure to guide the country through a very serious time.
Before the pandemic, bushfires, floods, the quasi war on China, the threat of nuclear conflict in Europe, the submarines mess, the Prime Minister could run out his caps-and-curries, how-good-is-mum, “tax rorts are OK”, “climate change is no biggie and electric cars are a joke” routine as his path to victory. It was what a majority of voters wanted to hear and believe.
The world is now a darker place, the domestic economic recovery notwithstanding. That could work for Labor, but has Albanese established his reputation sufficiently to present himself as the more serious alternative? Just because Morrison might be viewed as not much chop, it does not follow that enough voters will get behind his opponent.
The latest Resolve Monitor found that one in five voters can’t decide whether Albanese is doing a good or bad job. A similar proportion are not yet firmly committed to vote for either side.
On the six occasions in the past 50 years there’s been a change of government, the outcome has looked inevitable from the day the election has been called. In 2022, support for the major parties is low. Minor parties, independents and uncommitteds are where the action is. Strange days.
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